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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still