Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
