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Mounting apprehensions are present over the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

There have been few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict occurred, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the war was finished – a decision that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in the country's previous civil war in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.