Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
